My Thoughts On The 82nd Oscar Telecast

March 8, 2010

Well, my predictions were pretty decent. If you look at the ones on this site, there’s a slight difference: I ended up going with The Hurt Locker for Best Original Screenplay. My computer has been down the past few days and didn’t think to change it. At my school every year they project the Oscars in the multi-purpose room, and have a contest for prizes. The people who can guess the most correct winners get the prize. I ended up with second place, correctly guessing 17/24 categories in total. The ones I missed:

Read the rest of this entry »


THE 82nd ACADEMY AWARDS – Nomination Reactions and First Official Award Predictions

February 5, 2010

So it’s taken me long enough, but they’re finally here! My official Oscar Predictions. They’re only in the major categories: Best Picture, Animated Picture, Director, Acting Awards and Writing Awards. I feel I have the knowledge and information to properly predict those. The other awards… Not so much. I could try, but frankly, I’m going to be lazy for the moment and just focus on the major ones. Maybe before the official Oscar telecast I’ll make predictions in other areas. Anyway, I hope you enjoy. Remember, if you want to see these predictions later, just check out the page at the top labeled “The Oscars.” That will take you right there. Or just click here.

Read the rest of this entry »

Producers Guild Announces Its Nominees

January 5, 2010

The PGA announced its nominees for this year. All-in-all pretty predictable, but there are a couple of pleasant surprises. Check out the nominees and some commentary after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

Deep Vote Predicts The Oscars

November 24, 2008

Roger Ebert atests to meeting with an anonymous Hollywood insider in the Anime section of a small Blockbuster in an anonymous Midwestern city. He slyly codenames him, “Deep Vote” and claims that he can predict the Oscar nominations and/or wins. Ebert claims that last year, Deep Vote “batted 1000”. Pretty crazy. I guess we’ll have to wait and see whether he does so again this year. His predictions are as follows:

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
The Reader

(Extremely strong possibility of The Dark Knight, maybe The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, WALL-E and Synecdoche, New York)

Best Director
Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)

Best Actor
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
(One of the following: Brad Pitt, Josh Brolin, Richard Jenkins, Ralph Fiennes)

Best Actress
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader or Revolutionary Road)
Kristen Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River) — Predicted as winner.
(Maybe Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky)

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) — The other nominees don’t matter. Ledger will win hands down.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Rosemary DeWitt and/or Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Sophie Okonedo (The Secret Life of Bees)

Now, I guess the question is, do I agree? I haven’t seen most of the films mentioned here. I probably won’t see some of them by the time The Oscars come around. I hope to see most of them, though, as I did last year. But my personal opinion? These guesses are as good as any, and for the most part, slightly along with conventional wisdom. There are a couple of points he makes that should be paid attention to, though.

He predicts that Heath Ledger will win the award for Best Supporting Actor, and his confidence is such that the other nominees aren’t of any importance in comparison.

He predicts Melissa Leo to win for Best Actress. A bold prediction, if I do say so myself. Frozen River got quite good reviews, it’s true. It’s possible… Perhaps I’m just more cautious, but I don’t know if I would make such a prediction myself.

Clint Eastwood might very well get a nomination for Gran Torino. I’ve seen the trailer for the film, and I must say, Deep Vote might well be on to something. Of all the nominations, I think this is the one to watch out for. I personally think Gran Torino is a film to look out for in general, especially given the lackluster response to Changeling, Eastwood’s other film this year.

In the end, though, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens with both the nominations and awards. Will Deep Vote be right? How accurate will he be? We’ll find out eventually.

You can read the original article on Roger Ebert’s website here.

Oscars – The Dark Knight to get pre-Oscar re-release

September 11, 2008

Reuters is reporting that Warner Bros. is planning a January re-release of The Dark Knight in a push to get it nominated and perhaps win some Oscars.

Warner Bros. domestic distribution president Dan Fellman acknowledged ongoing talks with Imax execs over the prospect of restoring the Christian Bale starrer to some giant-screen venues in January. It’s uncertain if “Dark Knight” also will reappear in conventional venues at that point.

Though apparently, the plans are not finalized, and a wide re-release in conventional theaters looks doubtful, as the film is getting released on DVD in December. But even if a limited Imax re-release is done, it could generate some good momentum for the film.

This is also more evidence that The Dark Knight has better chances of getting nominated that some might think. I doubt Warner Bros. make this kind of push if it didn’t believe it had merit.

For more information on The Dark Knight‘s chances, see my previous post on the subject.

Oscars – The Opening and The Dark Knight’s Chances?

September 9, 2008

I guess Oscar season has officially begun. CNN has an article that talks about the beginning of Oscar season through the Toronto Film Festival, where many Oscar contenders begin getting their names out there and recognition. It’s exciting. There are numerous films that ahve been discussed as potential Oscar contenders being screened at the Toronto Film Festival, so we’ll see what comes out of it; critics reception, audience reception, etc. There’s already some buzz about certain movies. I’ll discuss this more at length in another post a little later, perhaps.

But the CNN article begins by discussing the dilemma about The Dark Knight‘s chances come February 22, 2009 (when the Oscars will be broadcast next year). CNN paints a grim picture. A much bleaker one than I would personally give. I don’t, of course, consider CNN (or the AP, where the story originated) any kind of experts on either the Oscars or The Dark Knight‘s chances.

It’s true, The Dark Knight has quite a bit working against it. The biggest one, of course, is the genre problem. It’s a comic book movie; a super hero movie. The only other time I can think of that a movie in the genre was even being tossed around as a contender was Spider-Man 2. Roger Ebert pushed for it to get a Best Pic nod, but no dice. The only thing super hero movies ever get recognized for is their technical achievements. Usually it’s all about the special effects, right? But The Dark Knight has something going for it here: it’s not special effects driven, like so many other super hero movies. And it’s been lauded by both critics and audiences alike as breaking the mold that previous super hero films, like the Spider-Man and Superman films had made.

Heath Ledger is an obvious shoe-in for a Best Supporting Actor nod. And this is one of the reasons I think The Dark Knight‘s chances are better than they might at first appear, the history of the genre with regards to the Oscars. I can’t think of a time that a super hero flick got an acting nomination. That alone breaks a mold that’s been set. It also opens the door to other categories that seemed off-limits to super hero movies before. If they can nominate an actor, why not nominate the screenplay? Or the director?

Although I don’t consider box-office gross a grossly (ha-ha) huge factor in receiving nominations, it’s certainly played a part in the past. Some recent Best Picture nominees (and winners) have been smaller, more independent films that didn’t even make $100 million at the domestic box office. Crash and No Country For Old Men set a modern standard that box office gross didn’t really mean anything. Last year’s Best Picture nominees made well below the $100 million mark, with the exception of Juno. Still, the last time a critically-acclaimed film made half a billion dollars domestically, it went on to win 11 Academy Awards. When asked about The Dark Knight‘s chances of a Best Picture nomination, he replied, “I would be astonished were it not nominated.”

I have to agree with Ebert. Though history seems to be against a Best Picture nomination for it, The Dark Knight has already exceeded many people’s expectations, and then some. It’s entirely possible to break such a precedent. The Lord of the Rings did it. It was the first major fantasy film to ever be nomiated, let alone win, the kinds of awards that it did. When I think of The Dark Knight‘s chances in the perspective of historical precedent, The Lord of the Rings reassures me that such precedents aren’t set in stone.