Roger Ebert atests to meeting with an anonymous Hollywood insider in the Anime section of a small Blockbuster in an anonymous Midwestern city. He slyly codenames him, “Deep Vote” and claims that he can predict the Oscar nominations and/or wins. Ebert claims that last year, Deep Vote “batted 1000”. Pretty crazy. I guess we’ll have to wait and see whether he does so again this year. His predictions are as follows:
(Extremely strong possibility of The Dark Knight, maybe The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, WALL-E and Synecdoche, New York)
Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
(One of the following: Brad Pitt, Josh Brolin, Richard Jenkins, Ralph Fiennes)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader or Revolutionary Road)
Kristen Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River) — Predicted as winner.
(Maybe Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky)
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) — The other nominees don’t matter. Ledger will win hands down.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Rosemary DeWitt and/or Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Sophie Okonedo (The Secret Life of Bees)
Now, I guess the question is, do I agree? I haven’t seen most of the films mentioned here. I probably won’t see some of them by the time The Oscars come around. I hope to see most of them, though, as I did last year. But my personal opinion? These guesses are as good as any, and for the most part, slightly along with conventional wisdom. There are a couple of points he makes that should be paid attention to, though.
He predicts that Heath Ledger will win the award for Best Supporting Actor, and his confidence is such that the other nominees aren’t of any importance in comparison.
He predicts Melissa Leo to win for Best Actress. A bold prediction, if I do say so myself. Frozen River got quite good reviews, it’s true. It’s possible… Perhaps I’m just more cautious, but I don’t know if I would make such a prediction myself.
Clint Eastwood might very well get a nomination for Gran Torino. I’ve seen the trailer for the film, and I must say, Deep Vote might well be on to something. Of all the nominations, I think this is the one to watch out for. I personally think Gran Torino is a film to look out for in general, especially given the lackluster response to Changeling, Eastwood’s other film this year.
In the end, though, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens with both the nominations and awards. Will Deep Vote be right? How accurate will he be? We’ll find out eventually.
You can read the original article on Roger Ebert’s website here.